Forecasting 101: Predicting the Weather without a Forecast

Yes, it can be done! Before technology and the advancements in meteorology, people had to rely on observations, patterns and folklore to prevent being caught off-guard by the elements. Actually, during hurricane season back in the day before satellites and radar, if a hurricane would hit the Caribbean, they would alert the rest of the Gulf of Mexico coastline. There are a many things that go into making a forecast without any models.

The first thing that you should do is look outside. This may seem quite obvious but observing the current conditions is the first thing that one would do to begin any forecast. A good place to start is looking at the type of clouds above and which direction they are moving.

1. Clouds: Clouds are a great tell tale sign of what is going on in the upper atmosphere. I put together a little chart for what precipitation can be associated with some common cloud types. While there is always a chance for these clouds to form with no precipitation, generally you can expect these clouds to produce some precipitation. If want to brush up on some of the basic clouds read my earlier post which you can easily get to by this Link to Cloud Basics.

2. Wind Direction: All right so you have observed the clouds, the next important step is to check the wind direction. If the wind is calm or undetectable, try throwing some grass in the air. In a general rule of thumb, winds that are coming from the east means precipitation is very likely. While, winds blowing from the west favors fair weather. Below, is Wendy Ward checking the wind by throwing some grass in the air.

3. Smells: Believe it or not, the smells in the air can be an inkling of whether precipitation is in the near future or not. Does it smell like compost? When a storm system is approaching, plants will release their waste which can make it smell like compost. Swamps will also release gasses, in loom of an approaching storm, which can lead to unpleasant smells. Both plants and swamps do this because of the pressure drop from the approaching storm.

4. Observe Smoke/Steam: Building a campfire can also help detect precipitation. Usually smoke will rise steadily, however, if the smoke is swirling and then descends this means that a low pressure system is approaching. A low pressure is usually associated with wet weather.

There are many other ways to detect whether precipitation is coming, but these are some main factors that will help you predict the weather without a forecast. If you ever are in the woods or are in an area where there isn't an easily accessible weather forecast remember these weather techniques to keep you from getting caught in the storm.


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